Foreign Policy

The Turkish Betrayal – Global Implications

Secretary of State Kerry has indirectly warned Israel that the U.S. “will not succumb to fear tactics and forces that suggest otherwise”, so if that is the reason for the timing of this disclosure, and if Netanyahu persists in his defiance against Iran’s nuclear enrichment program, Israeli intelligence fears it will face more intelligence disasters like the Turkish betrayal. As a result, Netanyahu may be forced to change his approach and accept the new political realities in the Middle East that appear to be taking shape based upon the evolving U.S.-Iranian rapprochement that will (despite administration assertions to the contrary) culminate in a nuclear Iran.

This same message that applies to Israel also applies to Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf emirates. All oppose Obama’s policy approach to the region in general and to Iran in particular. They are convinced that Obama can no longer turn away from the path he has set for himself, because he is driven by the ambition to prove that international problems can be solved without military force and solely by good will, negotiations and diplomacy. As a result, they believe that Obama is throwing them under the bus by trying to cut a deal with Iran and its allies. They believe, as does Israel (with whom, as it happens, they share the exact same geopolitical concerns about Iran), that Obama has no intention of stopping Iran militarily from achieving its goal and see him as lacking both the mettle and the guile to face the Iranians in what they view as a pivotal battle that will decide the future of the Middle East. They view him as a coward who blusters and threatens Americans, but who bows before every foreign tyrant. They are convinced that if Iran is not stopped now, it will reach the breakout capacity to assemble a nuclear weapon whenever it chooses, while the U.S. President would be satisfied with an Iranian pledge to refrain from weaponizing its nuclear assets – whatever that’s worth.

They see the Obama administration as too ready to trust Iranian President Rouhani on his pledges to improve ties and be more transparent about Iran’s nuclear work. They are especially concerned about Obama’s proposed concessions to Iran which are said to include releasing $50B in frozen Iranian assets in the U.S. and Europe – a concession that would enable Iran to bypass the global oil and gas sanctions against it and accelerate it’s nuclear weapons program. They believe (as does the respected insider security bulletin NightWatch-KGS) that Obama is backing-off his policy that Iran must halt all uranium enrichment, and is moving instead toward a containment strategy for a nuclear Iran.

Worse, they fear that Obama is offering Iran a welcome wagon to the nuclear club though a Western security blanket by prohibiting an Israeli pre-emptive strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. They are also concerned that Obama will present America’s traditional Middle Eastern allies with a new and extraordinarily dangerous strategic realignment that would promote Iran as America’s major Middle East nuclear ally.

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